Abstract
The causal relationship between zonal freight turnover and gross domestic product (GDP) are receiving increasing attention to coordinate the balanced development of freight transportation and zonal economic level effectively. However, studies on the causality direction between freight transportation and economic have so far been in debate. To understand the relationship of causality direction between transportation and economic development for different zones which can provide decision support for public policies, econometrics is used to analyze the relationship between them. This paper investigates the relationship between GDP and freight turnover for economic zones of stationary series and non-stationary sequences using the vector autoregressive (VAR) and the vector error correction models (VECM). The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the models. The Granger causality test is exploited to discover the relationship between transportation and economic development in each economic zone. The data on freight transportation and GDP in China from 2003 to 2018 is used. Results show that the relationship between freight turnover and GDP in the Northeast economic zone is bidirectional. A unidirectional relationship exists between freight turnover and GDP in the Circum Bohai-Sea, the Pearl River, Middle Part, Southwest, and Northwest zone. And the Granger causality is not obvious in the Yangtze River economic zone. In addition, suggestions for the zonal development of transportation and economic systems are provided. This study can provide a basis to adopt relevant policies and measures of sustainable development between transportation and economic growth for different zones.
Highlights
Rapid exchange of information and investment between different economies promote zonal logistics and transportation
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This study investigates the dynamic and bidirectional correlation between freight volume and economic development considering the lagged effects, using the data of freight turnover and gross domestic product (GDP) from 31 provinces in China
Summary
Rapid exchange of information and investment between different economies promote zonal logistics and transportation. A number of studies suggested transportation system development has a positive impact on economic growth [3,4]. Numerous empirical studies have identified a long-run equilibrium relationship between transportation and economic development [6]. Some studies have found a bidirectional relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth [4,7]. The previous studies cannot determine whether the relationship between transportation and economic development is one-way or interactive. It is necessary to further analyze the relationship of causality direction between transportation and economic development. Only a few studies have attempted to identify the interaction between China’s transportation and zonal economic growth, and no clear consensus has been reached in the literature regarding this interaction. Granger causality Results unit root test cointegration test lag order the model's parameter
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