Freight shipment modal split and its environmental impacts: An exploratory study

Abstract

Freight transportation activities are responsible for a large share of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Various freight transportation modes have significantly different impacts on air quality and environmental sustainability, and this highlights the need for a better understanding of interregional freight shipment mode choices. This paper develops a binomial logit market share model to predict interregional freight modal share between truck and rail as a function of freight and shipment characteristics. This model can be used to estimate the impacts of various factors, such as oil price, on shippers’ mode choice decisions. A set of multiyear freight and geographical information databases was integrated to construct regression models for typical freight commodities. The atmospheric impact levels incurred by different freight modal choice decisions are analyzed to provide insights on the relationship among freight modal split, oil price change, and air quality. Implications: Freight transportation has become a major source of energy consumption and air pollution, and emissions rates vary significantly across different modes. Understanding freight shipment mode choice under various economic and engineering factors will help assess the environmental impacts of freight shipment systems at the national level. This paper develops a binomial logit model for two dominating modes (truck and rail) and shows how this model is incorporated into an environmental impact analysis. The framework will be useful to policy makers to assess the impacts of freight movements on air quality and public health and to mitigate those adverse impacts.