Fraternisation and repression during the 2020–2021 attempted revolution in Belarus

Abstract

ABSTRACT Through adoption of Video Data Analysis (VDA), this study analyses the 2020–2021 revolutionary attempt in Belarus which featured the largest protests in the country's post-communist history. This study asks why state repression and violence broke out in some instances and interactions, but not in others? I analyse events that took place between activists and state forces through a sample of video data featuring 144 different cases including verbal interactions between protesters and authorities; fraternisation, and whether or not activists were able to strike a positive dialogue with police or security forces. These variables are statistically analysed with relation to whether authorities repressed protesters or if they successfully managed to put crowds under control. Results reveal that fraternisation and the establishment of a positive dialogue between protesters and state forces are negatively correlated with occurrences of state repression, which yields new insight into the micro-dynamics of repression and dissent.