Abstract
BackgroundEconomic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed.Methodology/Principal FindingsDirect economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008–2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014–2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300–800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped.Conclusions/SignificancePinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.
Highlights
A quantitative economic impact assessment of invasive species requires spatial integration of information on the potential for establishment, spread and impacts of the pest, which is a novel and challenging area in pest risk assessment [1]
Aquitaine is not predicted to be impacted in the coarse resolution analysis as the average summer temperature at the NUTS-2 region level (NUTS) level was below the pine wilt disease (PWD) temperature threshold of 20uC; parts of Aquitaine have average summer temperature above 20uC, the fine resolution analysis shows impacts in these parts of Aquitaine
21.3 20.5 4.5 223.0 24.1 3.2 21.7 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045505.t003. The results of this economic assessment demonstrate that an uncontrolled pine wood nematode (PWN) invasion will lead to large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the European Union (EU)
Summary
A quantitative economic impact assessment of invasive species requires spatial integration of information on the potential for establishment, spread and impacts of the pest, which is a novel and challenging area in pest risk assessment [1]. Wood production in forestry is vulnerable to invasive species, and enormous economic consequences have been reported. Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. We develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed
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