Framework for global sensitivity analysis in a complex 1D-2D coupled hydrodynamic model: Highlighting its importance on flood management over large data-scarce regions

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis determines how perturbation or variation in the values of an independent variable affects a particular dependent variable. The present study attempts to comprehend the sensitivity of the static input parameters on the accuracy of the outputs in a hydrodynamic flood model, which subsequently improves the model accuracy. Hydrodynamic flood modeling is computationally strenuous and data-intensive. Moreover, the accuracy of the flood model outputs is extremely sensitive to the quality of hydrologic and hydraulic inputs, along with a set of static parameters that are traditionally assumed and primarily used for calibration. Therefore, we focus on developing a framework for global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of static input parameters in a 1D-2D coupled hydrodynamic flood modeling system. A set of numerical experiments is conducted by perturbing various combinations of input parameters from their standard (or observed) values to generate flow hydrographs. Nonparametric probability density functions (PDFs) of the river discharge at different locations are compared to calculate the Kullback-Leibler (KL) entropy or KL-divergence, which is used to quantify the sensitivity of the input parameters. We demonstrated the proposed framework on a highly flood-prone rural catchment of the Shilabati River in West Bengal, India, and infer that the sensitivity of the static input parameters is highly dynamic, and their importance varies spatially from the upstream to the downstream of the river. However, Manning's n values of the channel and the banks are significantly sensitive irrespective of the location in the river reach. We suggest that any flood modeling exercise should accompany a GSA, which sets a guideline for the modelers to prioritize the set of sensitive static input parameters during data monitoring, collection, and retrieval. This study is the first attempt at a GSA in a 1D-2D coupled hydrodynamic flood modeling system, whose importance cannot be over-emphasized in any flood modeling platform. The proposed novel framework is generic and can be implemented prior to flood risk analyses for any floodplain management exercise. All free and commercially-available flood models can incorporate the proposed framework for a GSA as an extension toolbox.