Abstract
THE PROCESS of investing can be divided into security analysis, where the investor forms opinions about returns expected from various assets, and portfolio building, where he allocates his portfolio on the basis of these beliefs. This paper analyzes how we go about forming probability beliefs about returns. The following quotation, attributed to astute observer in an article titled Some Contrary Views on the Professional Status of Financial Analysis by W. C. Norby in the March-April, 1968, Financial Analysts Journal (page 11), expresses a widely prevailing attitude about this subject:
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