Framework for Evaluating Potential Causes of Health Risk Factors Using Average Treatment Effect and Uplift Modelling

Abstract

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a type of blood cancer that affects both adults and children. Benzene exposure has been reported to increase the risk of developing AML in children. The assessment of the potential relationship between environmental benzene exposure and childhood has been documented in the literature using odds ratios and/or risk ratios, with data fitted to unconditional logistic regression. A common feature of the studies involving relationships between environmental risk factors and health outcomes is the lack of proper analysis to evidence causation. Although statistical causal analysis is commonly used to determine causation by evaluating a distribution’s parameters, it is challenging to infer causation in complex systems from single correlation coefficients. Machine learning (ML) approaches, based on causal pattern recognition, can provide an accurate alternative to model counterfactual scenarios. In this work, we propose a framework using average treatment effect (ATE) and Uplift modeling to evidence causation when relating exposure to benzene indoors and outdoors to childhood AML, effectively predicting causation when exposed indoors to this contaminant. An analysis of the assumptions, cross-validation, sample size, and interaction between predictors are also provided, guiding future works looking at the universalization of this approach in predicting health outcomes.