Abstract
Flood risk is expected to increase significantly around the globe, fuelled by the nexus between flooding and land use. This is because changes in land use due to socio-economic development increase runoff, as well as the “values-at-stake” exposed to flooding. At the same time, changes in flood extent and depth can impact land use via policy interventions aimed at reducing future flood risk, such as buy-backs and zoning. Existing approaches to flood risk assessment and mitigation have generally ignored this two-way interaction between flooding and land use. To address this shortcoming, an integrated framework considering the dynamics of future changes in the flood-land use nexus is introduced and applied to the Gawler River region, South Australia. Results indicate that changes in land use due to socio-economic drivers can have a significantly greater impact on flood losses than climate change and that zoning can be effective in reducing future flood risk.
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