Fragile State Index: Trends and Developments. A Partial Order Data Analysis

Abstract

Partial order methodologies appear as advantageous tools to disclose evaluative trends and developments for time series as, e.g., the fragile states index (FSI). The present study focuses on the variations in the 12 individual indicators of the FSI over the years 2011–2015. The FSI includes in total 178 states and the present study analyzes both the full set of states and a subset comprising only the 28 European Union states. Clear trends are observed. Thus, on a global scale the primary importance of brain drain apparently is turned into group grievance whereas on the European scale the development discloses the increased problems associated with the increasing number of refugees and migrants as well as the declining economic situation in some states. Further the study discloses a series of so-called peculiar states, i.e., states where single indicators values are markedly higher or lower than expected when comparing to the “main stream” of indicator values for the states studied. In all cases the findings were substantiated and verified by available literature.