Fractional cover mapping of wildland-urban interface fuels using Landsat, Sentinel 1 and PALSAR imagery

Abstract

Fuels within the immediate vicinity of a house (e.g., within 30–60 m), referred to as the ‘home-ignition zone’, are important determinants of structure damage during wildfires. Methods for mapping home-ignition zone fuels using earth observing satellites are lacking, limiting the capacity to quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban fuel hazard and wildfire risk. Here, we (i) develop a methodology to map the fractional cover of five common fuel types (i.e., bare, buildings, herbaceous, woody and water cover) at the scale of the home-ignition zone (45 m radius area) using Landsat, Sentinel 1, and PALSAR imagery, and (ii) demonstrate that these maps improve prediction of house loss in wildfires in western Canada. A fractional cover database was created across thirteen cities via manual digitisation of aerial photos and used to train and validate random forest models consisting of combinations of Landsat, Sentinel 1 and PALSAR indices. The best models for the fractional cover of each fuel type explained most of the variation in the data (R2 = 0.66–0.96) and had high accuracy (Mean absolute error = 0.02–0.11) with low bias (Mean error = −0.005–0.008). The combination of optical (Landsat) and synthetic aperture radar (Sentinel 1 and/or PALSAR) improved model accuracy relative to models containing only multi-spectral indices. A house loss database was then derived for five major fires in western Canada and used to examine the effect of mapped fractional cover on house loss rates for 227 neighbourhood blocks. House loss rates were greater in blocks with a low amount of defensible space (i.e., areas of low fuel hazard; bare, herbaceous, or water cover) surrounding houses compared to those with extensive defensible space. This finding is consistent with house loss research globally and exposure assessment guidelines for communities in North America. Our fuel cover mapping methodology will facilitate improvements to models of house loss through the inclusion of important home-ignition zone fuel properties, allowing for spatially and temporally dynamic (i.e., annual) estimates of house loss likelihood and wildfire risk to communities.