Fractal Characteristics and Prediction of Backsilting Quantity in Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel

Abstract

Fractal interpolation has been an important method applied to engineering in recent years. It can not only be used to fit smooth curve and stationary data but also show its unique superiorities in the fatting of non-smooth curve and non-stationary data. Through analyzing such characteristic values as average value, standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis of measured backsilting quantities in the Yangtze Estuary 12.5 m Deepwater Channel during 2011–2017, the fractal interpolation method can be used to study the backsilting quantity distribution with time. According to the fractal interpolation made on the channel backsilting quantities from January 2011 to December 2017, there was a good corresponding relationship between the annual (monthly) siltation quantities and the vertical scaling factor. On this basis, a calculation formula for prediction of the backsilting quantity in the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel was constructed. With the relationship between the predicted annual backsilting quantities and the vertical scaling factor, the monthly backsilting quantities can be obtained. Thus, it provides a new method for estimating the backsilting quantity of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel.