Fractal analysis and yule statistics for seismic prediction based on 2009 L’Aquila earthquake in Italy

Abstract

Earthquakes represent a five-dimensional set of events: time, three space dimensions, and magnitude. To study the clustering between the space dimensions and the magnitude, a comparative analysis of epicenter and magnitude distributions was performed between the earthquake time series in Italy and around the L’Aquila region. The b value analysis reveals a slightly stronger seismic activity in the L’Aquila region compared with the Italian seismicity. Analysis of epicenter distribution shows that earthquakes in the L’Aquila region tend to fill the plane more than the overall distribution. Fractal dimension of hypocenter distribution for the L’Aquila region is approximately twice the b value, fulfilling the relation D = 2b. To investigate the relation between time and magnitude, an original interpretation was given for the variation of the bY value based on the Yule statistics. This approach reveals the relationship between earthquakes happened to propagate the existing faults and events creating new faults. The application of bY value analysis to the L’Aquila region highlights that clustering of earthquakes may be precursors of large earthquakes, and shows a reliable approach to predict violent earthquakes.