Abstract
Mathematically justified planning of policy is extremely important because any wrong decision can lead to serious consequences. It is no secret that mathematical modelling and other advanced analytical methods are rarely used for policy planning and decision impact forecasting because those require specific knowledge. The FP7 FUPOL project aims at a completely new approach to traditional policy analysis providing direct access for policy decision makers to domain uses cases modelling and verification on FUPOL Simulator and visualisation of the results in the form suitable for beneficiaries. Policy domain uses cases models are versatile, therefore architecture of the simulator must fit to the requirements of complexity and usability that determines involving heterogeneous agent-based and system dynamics simulation technologies and distributed simulation. The article deals with FUPOL approach in policy modelling and simulation, simulator designing, and sustainability assessment of provided technology. The FUPOL approach promotes simultaneously running of heterogeneous use case simulation models enhancing performance of simulation session. Belonging to open source spreads potential users’ network thus reducing errors in simulation and also in policy decision making. Web services SOA based architecture enhances integration with other decision making and service tools.
Highlights
Policy modelling as the object of research is versatile and complex
Each of them comprises many use cases which must be modelled in conformity with the comprehensive approach used in FUPOL project
The FUPOL policy modelling platform consists of joined work packages, which collaboration is aimed to creating the new possibilities for policy domain specialists related with forecasting of potential decision impact
Summary
Policy modelling as the object of research is versatile and complex. FP7 FUPOL project (see www.fupol.eu) aims at a new approach to traditional policy modelling. The FUPOL policy modelling platform consists of joined work packages, which collaboration is aimed to creating the new possibilities for policy domain specialists related with forecasting of potential decision impact. It is carried out introducing modern supporting tools as semantic search, simulation and visualisation. As a result of the simulation software running, the simulation data generated are analyzed using data mining approach ANFIS (Xue, 2006) to refine the final FCM relations and their weights in policy uses case model.
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