Four-decade response of land surface temperature to urban expansion in Beijing

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Urban expansion with increased impervious surface area (ISA) can affect the thermal regimes by altering the water and energy balance. Previous studies have indicated that ISA is the primary surrogate of rising land surface temperature (LST). However, urban-induced LST changes are not yet well quantified because of the temporal limitations of the LST datasets and the uncertainties from climate variabilities. In this study, we integrated multiple satellite-based products (vegetation coverage, albedo and radiation forcing) into a physically-based land surface model i.e., Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to detect multi-temporal scale response of LST to the increasing ISA in Beijing. Heat transfer-related parameters in the model were updated along with urbanization processes. The integrated modeling presented high performance for simulating LST, as evaluated with ground-based observations and the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST product. We found that the average LST over Beijing increased from 10.3 °C in 1980–1990 to 11.2 °C in 2010–2020, with nearly 33% contributed by the urban growth. The urban-induced thermal effect was particularly strong in summer daytime and winter nighttime. The frequency of heat days (the day with the maximum LST over 40 °C) in a year for Beijing appeared to linearly correlate with the impervious surface fraction (ISF) when ISF > 25%. For the urbanizing area, moreover, the four-decade LST estimates indicated that the annual overheating duration was obviously extended with a rate of about 5 days per decade. We therefore conclude that the urban expansion in Beijing not only amplified heat stress but also altered heat phenology, which have implications for urban planning and the construction of heat mitigation facilities.