Four years of African swine fever in Poland. New insights into epidemiology and prognosis of future disease spread

Abstract

Four and a half years of African Swine Fever (ASF) in population of free-ranging wild boars and domestic pigs revealed a number of novel insights into the disease epidemiology. Until No- vember 20th, 2018, in total 3048 cases in wild boars and 213 outbreaks in domestic pigs have been confirmed. In spite of low contagiosity as well as low rate of ASF spread in wild boars the disease has an enormous socio-economical impact on the production of pigs in Poland. One of the most important aspects which directly influences the dynamics of ASF spread is the unpredictable hu- man activity. Another important factor responsible for continuous ASF spread is fast recovery of wild boar population in spite of efforts taken by hunters. Assuming our scientific opinion ASF seems to be present in wildlife for the incoming few or several years. Therefore, extraordinary measures should be prepared and undertaken to limit the risk of the occurrence of future out- breaks in domestic pigs. One of the most crucial issues is implementation of strict biosecurity measures in all domestic pigs holdings.