Four Pillars of Statisticalism

Denis M Walsh,André Ariew,Mohan Matthen

doi:10.3998/ptb.6959004.0009.001

Denis M Walsh, André Ariew + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3998/ptb.6959004.0009.001

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Abstract

Over the past fifteen years there has been a considerable amount of debate concerning what theoretical population dynamic models tell us about the nature of natural selection and drift. On the causal interpretation, these models describe the causes of population change. On the statistical interpretation, the models of population dynamics models specify statistical parameters that explain, predict, and quantify changes in population structure, without identifying the causes of those changes. Selection and drift are part of a statistical description of population change; they are not discrete, apportionable causes. Our objective here is to provide a definitive statement of the statistical position, so as to allay some confusions in the current literature. We outline four commitments that are central to statisticalism. They are: 1. Natural Selection is a higher order eﬀect; 2. Trait fitness is primitive; 3. Modern Synthesis (MS)-models are substrate neutral; 4. MS-selection and drift are model-relative.

Highlights

Models of evolutionary population dynamics represent changes in the structure of evolving populations in terms of selection, drift, and fitness.1 There is a range of such models, from the Wright-Fisher equations of population genetics, to those of quantitative genetics, to the Price and breeders’ equations
The statistical interpretation holds that Modern Synthesis (MS)-models of evolutionary change are statistical models
D-selection may be realized as MS-selection, but they are different processes

Summary

Introduction

Models of evolutionary population dynamics represent changes in the structure of evolving populations in terms of selection, drift, and fitness. There is a range of such models, from the Wright-Fisher equations of population genetics, to those of quantitative genetics, to the Price and breeders’ equations. The orthodox, causal approach recommends that these models should be interpreted as descriptions of the causes of population change. On this view, natural selection and drift are forces, or causal processes, that propel a population through changes in trait frequencies (Sober 1993). The important point is that on this orthodox causal approach, the population models that quantify the degree of selection and drift in a population do so by articulating and differentiating the population-level causes of evolutionary change.. The models of population dynamics provide us with a set of statistical parameters that explain, predict, and quantify changes in population structure, but they do not do so by representing selection and drift as discrete, separable causal processes.

Darwinian and Modern Synthesis Selection

Statisticalism

Four Core Commitments

Conclusion

Literature cited