Four-parameter beta mixed models with survey and sentinel 2A satellite data for predicting paddy productivity

Abstract

Ensuring food security, fostering agricultural sustainability, and driving economic development. However, existing prediction models often overlook the unique characteristics of paddy productivity distribution, which varies between areas, skewed, and bounded within a certain minimum and maximum range, following a four-parameter beta distribution. Consequently, these models yield less accurate and potentially misleading predictions. Additionally, most approaches fail to capture the complex interrelationships among variables that often occur when we incorporate satellite data alongside survey data that has been recognized as a key approach for improving prediction accuracy and optimizing farming practices. To address these shortcomings, this study introduces a four-parameter beta Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) augmented within a four-parameter beta Generalized Mixed Effect Tree (GMET). The four-parameter beta GMET, an extension of the four-parameter beta GLMM model integrated with a regression tree, offers enhanced flexibility in modeling complex relationships. Application of this methodology to an empirical study in Central Kalimantan and Karawang reveals notable improvements over previous methods, as evidenced by substantially lower AIC and RRMSE values. Notably, the analysis identifies lagged values of band 4, band 8, and NDVI from Sentinel-2A satellite data as significant predictors of paddy productivity, overriding the importance of farmer survey variables. This underscores the potential of satellite data to be utilized in paddy productivity predictions, offering a more efficient and cost-effective alternative to farmer survey-based methods. By enhancing satellite technology, future efforts in paddy productivity prediction can achieve higher efficiency and accuracy, contributing to informed decision-making in agricultural management.