Abstract

Undernutrition modeling makes it possible to evaluate the potential impact of such events as a food-price shock or harvest failure on the prevalence and severity of undernutrition. There are, however, uncertainties in such modeling. In this paper we discuss four methodological issues pertinent to impact estimation: (1) the conventional emphasis on energy intake rather than dietary quality; (2) the importance of the distribution of nutrient intakes; (3) the timing of both the ‘food shock’ and when the response is assessed; and (4) catch-up growth and risk accumulation.

Highlights

  • Undernutrition is estimated to account for 45% of all deaths in children under 5, and its reduction is a central component of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) [1,2]

  • In the first diagram (Figure 2A), we show a dynamic conception of undernutrition that incorporates movement into and out of multiple categories of undernutrition

  • Conclusion and future directions Our accumulating knowledge of the complex processes that lead to undernutrition suggests that overly simplistic models may yield inaccurate results when simulating the effects of food-related shocks, such as large changes in food price, on undernutrition

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Summary

Introduction

Undernutrition is estimated to account for 45% of all deaths in children under 5, and its reduction is a central component of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) [1,2]. The child reaches normal height (Z ≥ −1) at four years of age and eventually experiences a period without increased risk of death until early adulthood when the risk again begins to gradually rise, representing the possibility of increased susceptibility to chronic disease The disadvantages of this last model are the relatively intensive data requirements and that algorithms for estimating risk decline and accumulation may become complicated if a child experiences multiple phases of growth faltering and catch-up; growth velocities are variable even in children with adequate nutrition. It provides a more realistic formulation of what are likely dynamic features of growth patterns and risk

Conclusion and future directions
27. Carriquiry AL
Findings
33. French SA
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