Abstract
Northeastern US heat waves have usually been considered in terms of a single circulation pattern, the high-pressure circulation typical of most heat waves occurring in other parts of the world. However, k-means clustering analysis from 1980–2018 shows there are four distinct patterns of Northeast heat wave daily circulation, each of which has its own seasonality, heat-producing mechanisms (associated moisture, subsidence, and temperature advection), and impact on electricity demand. Monthly analysis shows statistically-significant positive trends occur in late summer for two of the patterns and early summer for a third pattern, while the fourth pattern shows a statistically significant negative trend in early summer. These results demonstrate that heat waves in a particular geographic area can be initiated and maintained by a variety of mechanisms, resulting in heat wave types with distinct impacts and potential links to climate change, and that pattern analysis is an effective tool to distinguish these differences.
Highlights
Heat waves cause more deaths than any other weather-related natural disaster[1]
Heat waves are defined at the station-level, based on 35 Global Historical Climatology Network [23] (GHCN) stations, using a definition of three or more consecutive days of maximum daily temperature (Tmax) above the 95th-percentile for all days 1980–2018
We distinguish between station extreme heat days, station heat wave events, station heat wave days, and the combined regional heat wave days, which is the unique set of days when a station heat wave day occurs at one or more stations concurrently
Summary
Heat waves cause more deaths than any other weather-related natural disaster[1]. Cities are vulnerable to heat waves, due to the urban heat island effect[4,5,6]. In addition to human health, heat waves can negatively impact the energy sector (additional air conditioning), agriculture (crop failures, increased pests, animal deaths), local ecologies (pond and lake health, plant and tree health), and infrastructure (including roads and railroad tracks). Long-duration or multiple heat waves can be associated with drought[7] and flash drought[8], which has additional long-term negative impacts for humans, animals, plants, resources, and the economy. Heat waves are expected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency[9], exacerbating these negative impacts
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