Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.

Miguel De Luis,Juan Manuel Martínez Labarga,Julio Álvarez-Jiménez,Carmen Bartolomé,Inés Ibáñez

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0218160

Miguel De Luis, Juan Manuel Martínez Labarga + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218160

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Abstract

Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.

Highlights

The average global temperature has increased greatly over the last 100 years and a higher rate of warming has been projected in the future [1]
The potential distribution of G. bermejoi was first obtained on the basis of the bioclimatic variables and later, we studied the suitability of the habitat at the sites where the soil favors these species
From the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models generated for the species studied, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value obtained was 0.965, high enough to validate the models

Summary

Introduction

The average global temperature has increased greatly over the last 100 years and a higher rate of warming has been projected in the future [1]. Shifts in the range of some plant species have been highly significant, averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles, and a significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade has been recorded [4] While these changes may be associated with a higher risk of extinction and a loss of biodiversity, biological responses to such changes would be expected. Plants may display changes in species population genetics, altered species richness on a local scale or shifts in ecotone boundaries [5,6,7] The rate of such change is an important concern, and it will be crucial to determine the fate of the species affected and their ecosystems. The asynchrony between insect and plant systems might increase, usually with negative consequences [13]

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