Four American futures: Reflections on the role of planning

Abstract

Long range planning is considered in its relation to four alternative futures for the United States surprise-free, internal reconstruction or reform (maximum planning), a new society (minimum planning), and authoritarianism. Our ignorance in understanding complex systems frustrates meaningful holistic planning at a critical time. This fact, combined with the uncertain future decision making environment in this country, suggests that highest priority now be placed on three “good risk” elements system cognition, creation (design), and communications. Several steps in these directions are outlined. They involve basic systems research, modeling and gaming of complex systems, use of the computer as a high level communicator, and introduction of two new types of organization. By focusing on these three elements a gain is possible in the soundness of decisions which have long range impact in each of the environments.