Fossil gas lock-in risks: analysis of Algeria’s electricity sector and implications for a renewable energy transition

Abstract

AbstractAlgeria's electricity sector is dependent on fossil gas. Domestic gas demand is growing, and gas-fired power plants are projected to make up 84% of total installed capacity by 2028. This brings the country into a Sustainability Nexus dilemma: on the one hand, Algeria is committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts of the gas sector, whereas on the other hand, the energy and export revenue derived from gas would need to be substituted in order to ensure social and economic development in the country. Socioeconomic tradeoffs and alternatives must therefore be understood and managed in a way that ensures continued political and public support for the country's energy transition and fossil fuel exit. This paper aims to (a) identify fossil gas lock-in factors and (b) explore the opportunities to overcome these obstacles in order to facilitate a transition into renewable energy. Using a deductive approach, we draw on theoretical assumptions regarding carbon lock-in theory and the 2020 framework of Trencher et al. to study (1) technological and infrastructural conditions, (2) actors and agency, (3) formal and informal institutions, knowledge and competences, and (4) exogenous context. Between November 2021 and March 2022, a total of 23 semi-structured interviews were conducted in Algeria with stakeholders from the government, power and industry organizations, civil society organizations, and scientific institutions. The interview transcripts were then thematically analyzed to get a picture of recurrent themes and patterns. Our analysis identified several factors contributing to the fossil gas lock-in in Algeria's electricity system: economic dependence on oil and fossil gas; the significant influence of oil and gas actors, and the governmental support for fossil gas; gas and electricity subsidies, which lock out all other energy alternatives; and an overall lack of attention to climate change in energy policy formulation and in political and societal debate, despite the major capacity expansion plans prompted by heatwaves. The paper ends with a brief discussion of how Algeria's gas lock-in may worsen due to the war in Ukraine.