Fortunes and misfortunes of the dragon sons: Direct and cohort effects of superstition on education attainment

Abstract

AbstractPrevious research has highlighted the impact of the Chinese zodiac on fertility, education, and labor market outcomes. Yet previous research does not account for the indirect impact of parental belief on fertility. I develop a new empirical method for evaluating the impact of the zodiac superstition on education attainment using the difference between school cohorts and zodiac cohorts. The new method nests previous methods and identifies effects of the zodiac superstition on education which are independent of cohort effects. Using the Taiwan Social Change Survey, I find evidence of a positive effect for being born in the dragon zodiac years and a negative effect for being born in the tiger zodiac years. I find the results are driven only by older students within an academic cohort. These results cannot be explained by birth planning or overall increase in self‐confidence.