Formulation and Evaluation of IMS, an Interactive Three-Dimensional Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model 3. Comparison of Modelled C2-C5 Hydrocarbons with Surface Measurements

Abstract

In part 3 of this series of papers on a new 3-D global troposphericchemical transport model, using an Integrated Modelling System (IMS), anevaluation of the model performance in simulating global distributions andseasonal variations for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere,is presented. Comparisons of model OH concentrations with previous modelstudies show consistent modelled OH levels from the subtropics tomidlatitudes, while more discrepancies occur over the tropical lowlatitudes, with IMS predicting the highest levels of OH. The close agreementbetween modelled OH concentrations over midlatitudes, where high surfaceNOxand VOC concentrations are also found, is indicative of the strongphotochemical coupling between NOx, VOCs and O3 overthese latitudes. IMSOH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes during summerare generally lower than available measurements, implying that models ingeneral are underestimating OH levels at this location and time of year.Substantial differences between model OH concentrations over low latitudesclearly highlight areas of uncertainty between models. IMS OH concentrationsare the highest in general of the models compared, one possible reason isthat biogenic emissions of species such as isoprene and monoterpenes arehighest in IMS, leading to higher O3 levels and hence higher OH.Generally, the IMS VOC concentrations show a similar seasonality to themeasurements at most locations. In general though, IMS tends to underestimatethe NH wintertime VOC maximum and overestimate the NH summertime VOCminimum. Such an overestimate in summer could be due to IMSunderestimating OH levels, or an overestimation of VOC emissions or possiblya problem with model transport, all of these possibilities are explored.Except for n-pentane, the model underprediction of a VOC maximum during theNH winter month strongly suggests a missing emission mechanism in the modelor an underestimate of an existing one. It is very likely that there is alack of time varying emission sources in the model to account for theseasonal change in emission behaviour such as increasing energy usage (e.g.,electricity and gas), road transportation, engine performance, and otheranthropogenic factors which show strong seasonal characteristics. Theanomalous overprediction of wintertime n-pentane compared with its closesummertime prediction with the measurements suggest that emissions in thiscase may be too high.