Formulation and application of the probability of exceedance metric for risk characterization of non-threshold chemical hazards in food

Abstract

The aim of this work is to present the rationale, formulation, and application of the probability of exceedance (POE) as a metric capable of characterizing public health risks due to exposure to non-threshold chemical hazards in food. One of the main advantages of this metric is that it complements the information provided by the MOE and supports risk managers in decision-making, especially when the distribution of the estimated intake is positively biased. For a better understanding of its benefits, MOE and POE values were calculated in relation to the exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) and lead (Pb) in the diet of the Australian, Chinese, European, Japanese and American adult populations. The findings showed that similar MOE values, and therefore similar levels of concern, can have differences in POE results of up to several orders of magnitude, suggesting that more effective risk management measures should be prioritised.