FORMULATING A TRIP PRODUCTION PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE RESIDENTIAL LAND USE IN MEDIUM SIZED TOWNS OF KERALA

Abstract

Formulating of suitable travel demand forecasting m odels are the key elements for the development of a long-range transportation plan. This paper focuses its study on the formulati on of a trip production model using multiple regres sion technique for the residential land use in medium sized towns of Kerala. The trip production model estimated the number of trips that will be produced from the residential land use of these medium sized towns. T he Perinthalmanna, Tirur, and Ponnani towns of Kera la were selected as the study area based on certain criteria. The data on demogra phic and socio-economic characteristics these areas were collected through the administration household interviews. The quantitati vely and qualitatively analysis of the results were done using the correlation and multiple regression analysis. The study showed that the regression model with the independent variable s such as the percentage of automobile availability, percentage of persons empl oyed, percentage of students and percentage of pucc a type of dwelling with R 2 and Adjusted R 2 value of 0.878 and 0.859 respectively gives a bett er estimate of the trips produced. The model accura cy was also tested by checking the validity of the assumptions employed imultiple regression technique. Since most of the work related to traffic and transportation planning requires an effective frame work for the analysis of the present and future tra vel demand pattern, a model forecasting the trip produced based on the above me ntioned characteristics shall be advantageous for a speedy travel demand forecast.