Formulas predicting survival in patients with heart transplantation

Abstract

Kirklin et al. ( J Heart Transpl, 7 (1988) 331–336) reported survival data in 132 patients who underwent heart transplantation. Survival was evaluated by using the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier and maximum likelihood method. In addition, the effect of pulmonary vascular resistance on survival was estimated by using multivariate analysis. A microcomputer program in BASIC for predicting the survival probability after transplantation in patients with heart transplantation is designed. The formula used in this program is derived from the survival data reported by Kirklin et al. ( J Heart Transpl, 7 (1988) 331–336). A mathematical model of the ‘probacent’-probability equation and a computer program previously published by the author are employed in this study. Analysis of the computer-assisted predicted values and the data reported by Kirklin et al. ( J Heart Transpl, 7 (1988) 331–336) indicates that the program is accurate and reliable with a complete agreement in expressing survival probability as a function of time after heart transplantation. The computer-assisted predictive formula can determine the relationship between the time and the survival probability and may be of value for prognostic evaluation of patients. The computer-assisted mathematical model of the ‘probacent’-probability equation may be proposed as a general approximation method to make useful predictions of probable outcomes in various biomedical phenomena.