Formation Rates of Black Hole Accretion Disk Gamma‐Ray Bursts

Abstract

While many models have been proposed for GRBs, those currently favored are all based upon the formation of and/or rapid accretion into stellar mass black holes. We present population synthesis calculations of these models using a Monte Carlo approach in which the many uncertain parameters intrinsic to such calculations are varied. We estimate the event rate for each class of model as well as the propagation distance for those having significant delay between formation and burst production, i.e., double neutron star (DNS) mergers and black hole-neutron star (BH/NS) mergers. For reasonable assumptions regarding the many uncertainties in population synthesis, we calculate a daily event rate in the universe for i) merging neutron stars: ~100/day; ii) neutron-star black hole mergers: ~450/day; iii) collapsars: ~10,000/day; iv) helium star black hole mergers: ~1000/day; and v) white dwarf black hole mergers: ~20/day. The range of uncertainty in these numbers however, is very large, typically two to three orders of magnitude. These rates must additionally be multiplied by any relevant beaming factor and sampling fraction (if the entire universal set of models is not being observed). Depending upon the mass of the host galaxy, half of the DNS and BH/NS mergers will happen within 60kpc (for a Milky-Way massed galaxy) to 5Mpc (for a galaxy with negligible mass) from the galactic center. Because of the delay time, neutron star and black hole mergers will happen at a redshift 0.5 to 0.8 times that of the other classes of models. Information is still lacking regarding the hosts of short hard bursts, but we suggest that they are due to DNS and BH/NS mergers and thus will ultimately be determined to lie outside of galaxies and at a closer mean distance than long complex bursts (which we attribute to collapsars).