FORMATION OF THE INCOME PART OF THE STATE BUDGET OF UKRAINE UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE MARITAL STATE

Abstract

The article describes the peculiarities of the implementation of the state budget on revenues during the period of martial law. The problems caused by russia's armed aggression in relation to Ukraine’s budget policy are outlined. It has been found that in fact, the need for financial assistance is provoked by the growth of the military expenses, since the revenue part of the budget is approximately the same as the expenses for the Ministry of Defense alone. The structure of losses in the economy and trends in GDP changes are analyzed. It is noted that in the general the picture of the economy of our country, state expenditures occupy an increasingly large volume. As in the previous year, the largest item of budget expenditures in 2023 is security and defense; at the same time, expenditures directed at it compared to the pre-war period have increased almost tenfold. The structure of the economy for 2022-2023 has undergone significant changes, the share of industries with a high tax rate has decreased, which negatively affects the level of tax payments from the economy. It was revealed that in 2023, as a result of the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine (hereinafter – NBU), aimed at maintaining a relatively high discount rate, the profits of the banking system exceeded pre-war indicators several times, which allowed it to obtain a significant positive financial result. It was noted that a significant part of the state budget revenues was earned by the fuel and energy sector, which, despite the war, continues to be a successful component of Ukraine's economy. When forecasting the revenues of the state budget, one should take into account the high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability, which affects the high probability of deviation of the actual figures of the estimate from the planned ones. The main key risks can be called the continuation of the war and the uncertainty regarding the further ways of its development, non-return of refugees from abroad, insufficiently fast implementation of the reforms; lack of assistance from international organizations and governments. The latter is not a convention, but a fact, because the key source of income in 2024 will be external borrowing, since the country's own resources (tax and non-tax revenues, transfers) should be enough to finance only half of the expenses. In fact, the need for financial assistance is provoked by the growth of military expenses, and the budget is written in the form of loans.