Formation of Hybrid Computational Structure for the Analysis of Critical Control Scenarios in Biocybernetics

Abstract

We have considered methods of computational modeling of rapid processes in ecosystems and events of changes with extreme amplitude of abundance. For biocybernetics, the phenomena of degradation of the commercial population in the form of a sudden collapse for specialists and an explosive increase in the number of a new species after invasion — outbreaks are of the type predicted with difficulties. We have developed and ecologically substantiated a method for modeling a group of rapid phenomena, including the calculation of threshold states and transient modes. Algorithmically implemented computational structure, which describes spontaneous modes of rapid transformations in ecodynamics based on the internal properties of biosystems. New model is based on the formalization of threshold effects in regulation of reproduction, included as additional functionals in the basic hybrid structure for research in scenario experiments. Computational scenario is obtained for a generalized description of the extreme population process. We have considered the situation of the collapse of the commercial population with a quota-regulated harvest on the example of the king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus near the coast of Alaska. In the simulation scenario of the crab collapse, we took into account the logic of expert management of the level of exploitation of biological resources. The resulting control scenarios using the iterative model use bifurcations and the loss of the invariance property by the attractor. Modeling with the expert logic of fishery management revealed the characteristic signs of the dynamics of crab collapse and predicted important stages in the process of degradation of exploited biological resources.