Abstract
With the average contribution of imports to Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in the last five years reaching 19.1%, the dynamics of global commodity prices also influence the economic performance of East Java, including the movement of inflation. A composite indicator of global commodity prices is needed to find out the impact of changes in various global commodity prices on inflation in East Java. By adopting the Bank Indonesia methodology in forming a composite global price known as the Imported Inflation Price Index (IHIM) which has considered the method of forming a global composite price created by the IMF (IMF Commodity Price Index), the compilation of East Java global price composites also examines the accuracy of commodity selection and aspects of data availability. The selected global price composite for East Java is a composite of seven global commodities which include food (wheat, soybeans, corn and CPO) and non-food (iron, gold and oil). These are two aspects determining the relative weight, namely (I) the import portion of the total input based on the Input-Output table and (ii) the commodity weight of derivatives in the East Java Consumer Price Index (IHK) basket. Furthermore, with OLS regression, the composite of East Java global commodity prices affects the core-traded inflation movement in East Java. Thus, the composite of global commodity prices in East Java can be used as an indicator of East Java inflation projections, especially core-traded inflation. This study, in general, will also examine the effect of the exchange rate impact on the movement of core inflation, especially traded groups in East Java. Based on the regression results it is known that the impact of the exchange rate movement on core traded inflation in East Java is more significant than the effect of world commodity price movements.
Highlights
Dengan rata-rata kontribusi impor terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) dalam lima tahun terakhir mencapai 19,1%, dinamika harga komoditas global turut mempengaruhi kinerja perekonomian Jawa Timur, termasuk pergerakan inflasi
the dynamics of global commodity prices also influence the economic performance of East Java
A composite indicator of global commodity prices is needed to find out the impact of changes
Summary
Fluktuasi harga komoditas global yang terjadi pada dekade 2000-an menarik perhatian pemangku kebijakan terkait dengan dampak pergerakannya terhadap dinamika inflasi. Pengaruh pergerakan harga komoditas global terhadap inflasi suatu negara dapat melalui dua transmisi. Berdasarkan kajian yang dilakukan oleh Pesenti (2011), inflasi suatu negara dibentuk dari perubahan harga barang-barang domestik serta harga komoditas global, dimana harga barang domestik turut dipengaruhi oleh biaya tenaga kerja (unit labor cost) sebagai berikut: P. East Java Economic Journal Vol 2 No 2 (2018):210217 ta Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (2011) juga memaparkan bahwa pergerakan harga komoditas global (pangan maupun non pangan) berpengaruh terhadap dinamika inflasi suatu negara. Mengacu pada pembentukan IMF Commodity Price Index yang disusun oleh IMF, metodologi yang dilakuan oleh IMF dalam menyusun komposit harga komoditas global adalah sebagai berikut: 1. IMF akan menyusun indeks dasar dari komoditas-komoditas terpilih kemudian membobotnya cara relatif berdasarkan pangsanya dalam perdagangan dunia
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