Abstract
ABSTRACT Dominant technology in high-tech industries refers to the technology that can break the stability and balance of the original technology system within a certain period and is widely adopted under the interaction of technological possibility and market choice. It is of theoretical and practical necessity to explore dominant technology’s formation under overlapping niche. Thus, based on niche theory and competitive game theory, we established a competitive game model of dominant technology formation, and dynamically simulated the shape of dominant technology. This paper uses ‘the proportion of user adoption’ to measure dominant technology market share in high-tech industry and maintains that obtaining over 50% confers an obvious competitive advantage. Therefore, we draw three main conclusions: (1) Dominant technology formation in high-tech industry is influenced by R&D input, adopter preferences, adoption returns and the decision-making cost; (2) dominant technology formation under niche overlap can be described as a continuous accumulation and complex dynamic process; and (3) The main goal in the new technology competitive game is to obtain a larger market share, and the interaction in this game, which has two possible results, is complex, dynamic, diverse, and nonlinear.
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