Abstract
Earthquake recurrence intervals have been compared with their estimated forecasting limits. The estimation was made taking into account the main fractal dimensions of the site, deformation conditions and destruction nature. The selected model demonstrated that the nonlinear recurrence intervals are determined by geological and geomechanical factors. It is proved that the estimation of forecasting recurrence interval limits can be possible on the basis of geodynamic data and limit seismotectonic relations that reflect the dependence of the maximum magnitude on the earthquake focus dimensions and destruction nature. The estimations are based on the example of the Calaveras fault area (California, USA), where it is possible to distinguish between the segments characterized by different creep rates. The analysis of the obtained results shows that the earthquake recurrence graph parameters of the investigated area significantly depend on its typical geological and geotechnical factors as area maximum structure size, similarity coefficient, conditions and deformation rate, destruction nature.
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