Forks in the Road

Abstract

This Essay provides a simple heuristic to enable public and private policymakers to focus on the most important climate mitigation options. Policymakers face a blizzard of information, advocacy, and policy options, and it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. Many options are attractive on the surface but will not meaningfully address the problem or are unlikely to be adopted in the foreseeable future. If policymakers make the right decision when confronting three essential choices or forks in the road, though, the result will be 60% to 70% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, an amount that will keep widely-adopted climate mitigation goals in reach. The three options are decarbonization of the electrical grid, electrification of the motor vehicle fleet, and electrification of buildings. International, national, and subnational officials, philanthropists, corporate executives, advocacy group leaders, and households have the ability to prioritize these three options in their regulatory, purchasing, and other actions. If they make the right choice on these three options, many other mistakes can be made without jeopardizing the chance to achieve widely-adopted emissions targets. If they make the wrong choice, few combinations of other viable options can achieve the needed reductions. In the face of a growing consensus that major, prompt emissions reductions are required, the forks in the road approach can provide policymakers with the mental framework necessary to make smart decisions and ignore the noise surrounding climate law and policy