Forging a Sino-US “grand bargain” in space

Abstract

Sino-US competition, and even conflict, in space seems increasingly likely in light of recent anti-satellite events. Advancing the cause of non-weaponization of space has long been limited by the scope of discussions. This article recommends to the incoming US administration a bargaining strategy that encompasses wider issues, increasing the possibility of circumventing this impasse and achieving improved security for US space systems by forestalling an anti-satellite arms race. Including commercial space and civil space issues in discussions with China on space security, in a type of “grand bargain” negotiation, may lead to agreement between the parties on a code of conduct in space. Simultaneously taking certain hedging positions against default may improve the US bargaining position and increase the likelihood of compliance.