FOREX rate prediction improved by Elliott waves patterns based on neural networks

Abstract

Financial market predictions represent a complex problem. Most prediction systems work with the term time window, which is represented by exchange rate values of a real financial commodity. Such values (time window) provide the base for prediction of future values. Real situations, however, prove that prediction of only a single time-series trend is insufficient. This article aims at suggesting a novelty and unconventional approach based on the use of several neural networks predicting probable courses of a future trend defined in a prediction time window. The basis of the proposed approach is a suitable representation of the training-set input data into the neural networks. It uses selected FFT coefficients as well as robust output indicators based on a histogram of the predicted course of the selected currency pair. At the same time, the given currency pair enters the prediction in a combination with another three mutually interconnected currency pairs. A significant output of the articles is, apart from the proposed methodology, confirmation that the Elliott wave theory is beneficial in the trading environment and provides a substantial profit compared with conventional prediction techniques. That was proved in the performed experimental study.