Forestry Professionals’ Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts on the Forest Industry in Maine, USA

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change will have a significant impact on the forest industry and will require strategies that promote sustainable forest management. Understanding perceptions of climate change impacts is critical to supporting the use of adaptation strategies, informing future research, and supporting decision-making. We describe a multi-method approach using nominal group technique and semi-structured interviews to identify and understand experts’ concerns in regards to future climate change impacts on the forest industry in Maine, USA. A review of the existing scientific literature helped inform the development of the interview and nominal group techniques. Experts prioritized the greatest and most likely climate change impacts on the forest industry as: forest health threats imposed by insects and pathogens, extreme precipitation events, shifts in forest composition, invasive species, and changes in forest productivity. Interviews and current scientific understanding largely support the prioritization of the impacts, but also elucidate uncertainties in regards to climate change perceptions (e.g., timing and magnitude of future impacts), highlight the need for continued research that specifically addresses how climate change will affect the forest industry, and demonstrate that climate change presents not only a perceived threat but also an opportunity in the form of increased forest productivity and economic growth.