Forestry Carbon Sequestration Demand Based on Bayesian Network: Mechanism and Simulation

Abstract

The carbon emission control enterprises whose cognition and response of forestry carbon sequestration offset mechanism are integrated into a Bayesian network, which reveals the mechanism of forestry carbon sequestration demand and simulates from multi-dimensions such as the emission reduction, offset ratio, price determination, risk sharing of forestry carbon sequestration and etc. The study proves that the demand for forestry carbon sequestration is a dynamic process of the complicated action among the carbon emission control enterprises and the environmental factors. Although the carbon emission control enterprises shows high recognition and accreditation of increasing carbon sequestration and reducing emission of forest, confronted with the abundant carbon quota as well as the unclear expectation of forestry carbon sequestration, the expected proportion of forestry carbon sequestration to CCER and the willingness to buy forestry carbon sequestration are not high, and the prices of forestry carbon sequestration are inclined to be dominated by the government and the risks are shared by both trading parties. Thus, the government should promote the allocation of emission quotas and forestry carbon sequestration into the national carbon emissions trading system through the carbon trading system innovation, while stabilizing prospective earnings from purchasing of forestry carbon sequestration.