Abstract

Madagascar is renowned for the loss of the forested habitat of lemurs and other species endemic to the island. Less well known is that in the highlands, a region often described as an environmental “basket-case” of fire-degraded, eroded grasslands, woody cover has been increasing for decades. Using information derived from publically available high- and medium-resolution satellites, this study characterizes tree cover dynamics in the highlands of Madagascar over the past two decades. Our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of increased tree cover on smallholder farms and village lands, spurred by a mix of endogenous and exogenous forces. The new trees play important roles in rural livelihoods, providing renewable supplies of firewood, charcoal, timber and other products and services, as well as defensible claims to land tenure in the context of a decline in the use of hillside commons for grazing. This study documents this nascent forest transition through Land Change Science techniques, and provides a prologue to political ecological analysis by setting these changes in their social and environmental context and interrogating the costs and benefits of the shift in rural livelihood strategies.

Highlights

  • Madagascar is still losing its natural forest cover, despite decades of conservation efforts [1]

  • The application of forest transition theory in landscapes dominated by smallholder plots requires a multi-level approach that enables the consistent detection of woody cover dynamics across a broad area, combined with highly contextualized explanations of processes occurring in specific landscapes

  • Based on the state-of-the-art remote sensing evidence, we argue that this represents an incipient, sub-national forest transition

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Summary

Introduction

Madagascar is still losing its natural forest cover, despite decades of conservation efforts [1]. It has been difficult to map and quantify these tree cover dynamics. Traditional remote sensing techniques struggle with these sparse land covers, which are very patchy and distributed across a landscape mosaic (unlike large blocks of closed canopy forest). Such tree cover—largely dominated by exotic species—is often ignored by conservationists for its lesser biological value, yet it turns out to be central to livelihoods and rural development, as well as being relevant to soil and water conservation, carbon budgets, invasion biology, and other aspects of environmental management

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