Forest Insect Outbreak Dynamics: Fractal Properties, Viscous Fingers, and Holographic Principle

Abstract

During the growth of a forest insect outbreak epicenter, there are processes that involve the formation and expansion of the primary epicenter of forest damage, as well as secondary epicenters—both connected and unconnected to the primary one. This study characterizes outbreak epicenters in terms of their fractal dimensions and “viscous finger” parameters at the epicenter boundary, highlighting their significance in the context of forest insect management. Local outbreak epicenters were found to be characterized by fractal dimension D = 1.4–1.5, and the boundaries of the epicenters were described using the “viscous finger” model. Proposed models were constructed and validated using remote sensing data obtained from MODIS and Sentinel-2 satellites at epicenter sites and boundaries during the outbreak of the Siberian silk moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetverikov from 2014 to 2020 in the Krasnoyarsk region of Russia. The study revealed that the frequency of the mode spectrum of one-stage spatial series of “viscous fingers” corresponds with the data on the development of the outbreak foci area.