Abstract
Forest evapotranspiration (ET) is expected to increase under global warming. However, the relative contribution of the major drivers (such as leaf area index (LAI), climate forcing, atmospheric CO2, etc.) to long-term ET trends in forest is unclear. In addition, the effects of ET changes induced by driving factors and ET changes induced by forest area changes on total forest ET are still remain to be determined. We aim to explore long-term ET trends in global forest and assess the relative contributions of their influencing factors by a remote sensing-based carbon–water coupling model, the second edition of the Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML-V2). The results showed that: 1) the ET of global forest increased slightly (11.30 ± 4.23 mm year−1 decade-1, p < 0.05), with the greatest increase observed in evergreen broadleaf forest (20.89 ± 6.96 mm year−1 decade-1, p < 0.01). 2) Simulation experiment indicated that upward global forest ET trend was mainly dominated by climate forcing change (56.71 %), increased LAI (5.07 %), albedo and emissivity change (−0.77 %) and increased CO2 (−37.45 %). Only mixed forest exhibited a decrease in ET trend, which was caused by CO2 concentration counteracted the increase trend of ET induced by climate forcing change and LAI increase, resulting in a decrease trend of ET. Different from broadleaf forests and MF, the increase of LAI in needleleaf forests caused a negative contribution of ET. 3) In the overall increasing trend of global forest ET, the driving factors played a dominant role (53.09 %) and the forest area played a secondary role (46.91 %). Our findings highlight the divergent responses of various forest types under climate change, which is beneficial to forest management and sustainable development.
Published Version
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