Forest Cover Dynamics and Forest Transitions in Mexico and Central America: Towards a “Great Restoration”?

Abstract

Most academic and popular forest narratives in Mexico and Central America have focused on forest loss or deforestation as the primary tendency in forest cover, with little attention paid to the possibilities of a forest transition. Indeed, the evidence suggests that in particular periods and places linear tendencies towards forest loss have been predominant. However, looking more closely at data from more recent periods suggests that in the last two decades more complex nonlinear patterns of deforestation, forest recovery, and forest maintenance in spite of proximate deforestation pressures characterize forest cover dynamics in the region. Forest maintenance is argued to be a result of particular forest uses that can include shade tree coffee, sustainable forest management for timber, and protected areas. Forest cover dynamics vary considerably from country to country in the region, as do the immediate prospects for a forest transition.