Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England

Abstract

The extent to which forest carbon sequestration can help mitigate climate change will be determined in large part by future land use. Here we quantify the impacts of five divergent future land-use scenarios on aboveground forest carbon stocks and fluxes throughout New England. These scenarios, four co-designed with stakeholders from throughout the region and the fifth a continuation of recent trends in land use, were simulated by coupling a land-cover change model with a mechanistic forest growth model to produce estimates of aboveground carbon over 50 years. We tracked the fate of forest carbon removed through harvesting and development using a standard carbon accounting methodology, modified to fit our modeling framework. Of the simulated changes in land use, changes in harvesting had the most profound and immediate impacts on carbon stocks and fluxes. In one land-use scenario that included a rapid expansion of harvesting for biomass energy, New England’s forests stopped serving as a net carbon sink and became a net carbon source by 2060. In an alternative scenario, relatively small reductions in harvest intensities (i.e., ~10% less biomass removed), coupled with an increased percent of wood going into longer-term storage, led to substantial reductions in net carbon emissions (909 MMtCO2eq) as compared to a continuation of recent trends in land use. However, these projected gains in carbon storage and reduction in emissions from less intense harvesting regimes can only be realized if they are paired with a reduction in the consumption of the timber products, and their replacements, that otherwise would result in additional emissions from leakage and substitution.