“Forest carbon sequestration mapping and economic quantification infusing MLPnn-Markov chain and InVEST carbon model in Askot Wildlife Sanctuary, Western Himalaya”

Abstract

Due to the expeditious rise in anthropogenic activities and rapid extractive pressure, protected areas in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) are experiencing significant losses in ecological diversity and a substantial decline in the potential for carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. The quantification of carbon sequestration and the understanding of its corresponding economic gain/loss are crucial for raising strict preservative concerns in protected areas with rich ecological and economic values. Transitions in land use land cover (LULC) trajectories from historical to future scenarios impact the dynamics of carbon storage and sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. The present study extends a comprehensive 40-year (1995–2035) assessment of carbon mapping (gain/loss) as well as an economic approximation of carbon sequestration in the Askot Wildlife Sanctuary (AWLS), Western Himalaya, using satellite data. This investigation presents a novel hybrid approach by infusing machine learning algorithms and a spatial-temporal technique-based MLPnn-Markov chain model for future LULC simulation with the InVEST model that incorporates carbon mapping and economic valuation. The results show that among all the land use classes, dense forest has the highest carbon density; however, it exhibits a decreasing trend from 1995 (5,695,878.41 Mg/ha) to 2035 (4,378,439.81 Mg/ha). The economic quantification of carbon sequestration was performed by applying sensitivity analysis combined with different carbon prices and discount rates from 2020 to 2035. The observed outcomes reveal significant economic losses due to rapid forest cover decline, as indicated by a negative net present value (NPV) ranging from a minimum of ∼US$ -8 million to a maximum of ∼US$ -53 million. This study develops a valuable database by providing evidence-based decision-making and guidance for the sustainable preservation of ecosystems in the Western Himalayas and similar regions worldwide, where forest carbon sequestration is of paramount importance. The findings of the study suggest sound provisions for the conservation of forested landscapes and the development of efficient voluntary and regulatory carbon trading markets to achieve stability in forest carbon stocks. In doing so, this interdisciplinary approach addresses the growing imperative of integrating ecological and economic aspects in the context of biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation.