Forest carbon removal potential and sustainable development in Japan

Abstract

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change and reducing emissions as a major carbon sink. However, its value in removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere is always underestimated in natural capital (NC) accounting and sustainability assessments. This study predicted Japan’s forest CO2 removal by afforestation and forest management and its monetary value until 2042 from national to gridded level, with statistical data and complementary satellite data products, and explored how that CO2 removal will contribute to sustainable development under the inclusive wealth (IW) framework. The results show that: (1) the annual CO2 removal by forests has the potential to offset 15.3% of the emission and increase NC by 6.8% in Japan, significantly contributing to carbon neutrality and IW growth; (2) the total CO2 removal in exiting forests will peak at around 2030 and then decrease, but expanding afforestation could offset that decrease in later years; (3) the spatial distribution patterns of IW and forest CO2 removal are opposite. This indicates a national carbon trading market could create new wealth for rural communities where vast forests exist, and then effectively balance the inequal urban–rural development in Japan. The explicit spatial information of this study could provide valuable information for differentiating policy priorities of forestry planning and sustainable development in different local communities.