Forest and Land Fires Hazard Level Modeling: Case study of Kapuas, Central Kalimantan

Abstract

Forest and land fires occur almost every year in Indonesia and their impacts are detrimental to human life and the environment. The major causes of forest and land fires thus need to be determined and spatial pattern of the fire activity needs to be developed. The assessment of hazard levels can help policy makers to develop strategy and actions for managing fire risks and to develop spatial plans that can decrease the fire risk or evaluate the impacts of land use change on fire risk. The objectives of this research are to analyze the variables that affected the level of forest land and fire hazard, to develop a spatial model of forest and land fire hazard and to determine the distribution of forest and land fires in the Kapuas District of Central Kalimantan. Forest and land fires in the Kapuas District of Central Kalimantan Province receive ongoing attention from local, national and international communities. Composite Mapping Analysis was used to develop spatial model of forest and land fires hazard index. Six variables were used in determining the hazard of forest and land fires in Kapuas i.e., ​​land cover, distance from river, distance from road, and distance from village centre, peat depth, and land system. The findings showed that fire hazard index could be developed by using three variables: peat depth, land cover and distance from road. The hotspot density could well be explained using the three variables with a coefficient of determination (R2) of about 73.8%. The highest peat depth class had a weight of 72.9% in determining the forest fire possibility through hotspot density. High hazard areas were mostly distributed in deep peat areas, found under land cover class of secondary swamp forest and shrub swamp and in close proximity to the road. This study provided suggestions to the Kapuas District stakeholders to enhance intentions to improve land productivity, to protect peatland conservation areas and to manage water in peatland. The study concludes on the importance of developing time-series forest and land fire hazard maps and to include socio-economic variables in the model.