Foresighting of environmental regulation of a national industry development: macro-level

Abstract

The future of environmental regulation in the industrial sector is largely dictated not only by political decisions and measures, but also by the intensity and nature of investments in certain types of economic activities, as well as by the environmentally-oriented requirements that are imposed on investment projects. Changing the priority and effectiveness of environmental regulation tools, the emergence of new and the abolition of traditional levers of influence depends on the trajectory of scientific and technological progress, the development of new fields of economic activity, such as digital services, the transformation of the ecological footprint of industry, as well as a new understanding of the environmental challenges of the future. Therefore, the relevance of priority approaches’ foresighting, tools and directions of environmental regulation of the strategic development of a national industry based on the most persistent and dominant trends in the political and financial spheres that define long-term strategies of economic development at the macro level for 2030-2050, is increasing. The paper provides basic directions of foresight in the field of environmental regulation: monitoring and comprehensive analysis of the co-evolution of global economic and environmental systems under the auspices of the United Nations; problem-oriented foresighting of narrowly specific, micro-territorial unique ecosystems and phenomena with a strict local binding; national and supranational scientific and technical strategies for long-term economic development, including the transformation of investment priorities in industry. Based on the analysis of the main investment trends in the field of sustainable development, the main barriers to greening the industry were identified: the investment gap in developing countries and low activity of private investors. An overview of the nomenclature, geography of distribution and effectiveness of the practical application of "green" investment products, instruments and markets were presented. They include: "green" bonds, "sustainable" funds and ESG-funds, Indices of sustainable development stocks, "participatory investment" in the form of applied investment programs of public-private partnership. In addition to this, the specifics of national strategies for the development of the world's industrial centers – dynamically and innovatively developing macroeconomics of the United States, the EU and the People's Republic of China, aimed at decarbonizing the energy sector and achieving the so-called "carbon neutrality" of the economy within the framework of the "Green New Deal" were also established: quantitative goals, the volume of investment, the system of motivation of entrepreneurs. According to the results of the analysis, the main principles of environmental regulation of the future (for the perspective of 2030-2050) were defined: "achieving the Sustainable Development Goals" (SDGs), "monitoring investment trends", "indicative planning" and "scenario forecasting" of measures and initiatives to achieve the SDGs, "participativeness of investments" in the development of smart infrastructure and advanced innovations for the purpose of environmentally-oriented transformation of technological structures towards their carbon neutrality and "environmentally differentiated fiscal policy" – protectionist and sanctioned.