Foresight through developing shared mental models: The case of Triple Access Planning

Abstract

Planning for the future involves making sense of the present and examining possible changes in key factors that can influence the future. Actors rely upon mental models of the system that planning addresses: their simplified interpretations of the makeup of system elements and element interactions that together determine how the system works. It follows that a helpful foundation for strong planning is to develop a shared mental model among actors of the system of interest in the present and use this in turn to create mental models of possible futures for the system (scenarios). This paper presents a methodology for doing this that incorporates co-creation of causal loop diagrams that in turn inform development of scenarios. The paper then applies the methodology to offer more insight to the approach, using the case of the Triple Access System and in turn Triple Access Planning. Triple access refers to the transport, land-use and telecommunications systems which each provide different and inter-related means for being able to reach people, employment, goods, services and opportunities which underpins economic prosperity and social wellbeing. The paper highlights how thinking is an important and integral part of planning, especially when dealing with uncertainty in a complex system.