Foresight plus: serverless spatio-temporal traffic forecasting

Abstract

Building a real-time spatio-temporal forecasting system is a challenging problem with many practical applications such as traffic and road network management. Most forecasting research focuses on achieving (often marginal) improvements in evaluation metrics such as MAE/MAPE on static benchmark datasets, with less attention paid to building practical pipelines which achieve timely and accurate forecasts when the network is under heavy load. Transport authorities also need to leverage dynamic data sources such as roadworks and vehicle-level flow data, while also supporting ad-hoc inference workloads at low cost. Our cloud-based forecasting solution Foresight, developed in collaboration with Transport for the West Midlands (TfWM), is able to ingest, aggregate and process streamed traffic data, enhanced with dynamic vehicle-level flow and urban event information, to produce regularly scheduled forecasts with high accuracy. In this work, we extend Foresight with several novel enhancements, into a new system which we term Foresight Plus. New features include an efficient method for extending the forecasting scale, enabling predictions further into the future. We also augment the inference architecture with a new, fully serverless design which offers a more cost-effective solution and which seamlessly handles sporadic inference workloads over multiple forecasting scales. We observe that Graph Neural Network (GNN) forecasting models are robust to extensions of the forecasting scale, achieving consistent performance up to 48 hours ahead. This is in contrast to the 1 hour forecasting periods popularly considered in this context. Further, our serverless inference solution is shown to be more cost-effective than provisioned alternatives in corresponding use-cases. We identify the optimal memory configuration of serverless resources to achieve an attractive cost-to-performance ratio.