Foresight in action: A longitudinal study based on a 25-year journey in the world of policy-oriented foresight

Abstract

In present times, in which we face several complex societal challenges and see a renewed interest in and importance of foresight, it makes sense to look back on looking forward in contexts of public policy: to reflect on lessons learned, to avoid common pitfalls and build on what works. In this paper, we describe our 25-year journey in the world of foresight from the question of how foresight practitioners assess the future and how these experts, in this process, come to grips with an uncertain future while supporting public policy and decision-making. On this journey, we witnessed futurists constructing their own profession as well.Based on our detailed, ethnographically informed, reflection on action, we conclude that:1.The methodological challenges we already observed during the first trajectories of our journey, which included accommodating stakeholder perspectives, dealing with uncertainty and non-stationarity in foresight, and combining analytical and intuitive foresight approaches to inform policymaking, continue to challenge foresight practice today.2.To meet the complex, societal challenges of our times, we must learn to resist the urge to seek comfort in certainties and become more proficient in embracing uncertainty.3.A combined approach of unravelling knowledge production and construction of meaning on both a micro-level of interaction as well as on a community level strengthens the research of contemporary knowledge practices.